World
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
6.1%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 6.1% probability of this happening.
Current probability
6.1%
24h
0%
7d
0%
volume
$420K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi