World
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
5.9%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑3.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 5.9% probability of this happening.
Current probability
5.9%
24h
+1.4%
7d
+3.2%
volume
$202K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi