World
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?
2.1%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓2.4% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 2.1% probability of this happening.
Current probability
2.1%
24h
-2.4%
7d
-2.4%
volume
$87K
Closing date
Nov 7, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi