World
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
22.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑3.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 22.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
22.5%
24h
-2%
7d
+3%
volume
$81K
Closing date
Dec 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi