World
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?
6%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓27.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 6% probability of this happening.
Current probability
6%
24h
-1.5%
7d
-27.5%
volume
$70K
Closing date
Nov 16, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi