World
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
9%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑4.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 9% probability of this happening.
Current probability
9%
24h
+5.3%
7d
+4.5%
volume
$50K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi