World
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
31.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑14.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 31.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
31.5%
24h
+11%
7d
+14.5%
volume
$58K
Closing date
Dec 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi