World
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
1.2%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓4.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 1.2% probability of this happening.
Current probability
1.2%
24h
-0.2%
7d
-4.2%
volume
$51K
Closing date
Oct 31, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi