Politics
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
31.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑1.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 31.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
31.5%
24h
-0.2%
7d
+1.5%
volume
$240K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi