Politics
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
31.6%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 31.6% probability of this happening.
Current probability
31.6%
24h
-0.7%
7d
+0.5%
volume
$70K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi