Politics
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
64.1%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑8.6% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 64.1% probability of this happening.
Current probability
64.1%
24h
+1.5%
7d
+8.6%
volume
$97K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi