Politics
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
62.1%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑3.6% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 62.1% probability of this happening.
Current probability
62.1%
24h
+1.2%
7d
+3.6%
volume
$52K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi