Politics
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
67%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑5.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 67% probability of this happening.
Current probability
67%
24h
+1.9%
7d
+5%
volume
$56K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi