Tech & AI
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
16.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑3.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 16.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
16.5%
24h
+3%
7d
+3%
volume
$100K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2030
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi