Politics
Will the 2028 presidential election occur?
90.2%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓4.7% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 90.2% probability of this happening.
Current probability
90.2%
24h
-4.7%
7d
-4.7%
volume
$102K
Closing date
Dec 1, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi