World
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
68.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑3.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 68.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
68.5%
24h
-0.5%
7d
+3%
volume
$722K
Closing date
Nov 16, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi