World
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?
33%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 33% probability of this happening.
Current probability
33%
24h
+0.5%
7d
-0.5%
volume
$65K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi