World
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
27.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 27.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
27.5%
24h
+6%
7d
-0.5%
volume
$109K
Closing date
Dec 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi