World
France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?
1.1%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 1.1% probability of this happening.
Current probability
1.1%
24h
-0.2%
7d
-0.2%
volume
$53K
Closing date
Nov 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi