World
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?
2.3%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.0% this week
30 days agoToday
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Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 2.3% probability of this happening.
Current probability
2.3%
24h
0%
7d
0%
volume
$72K
Closing date
Nov 16, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi