World
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?
3.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.4% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 3.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
3.5%
24h
-0.4%
7d
-0.4%
volume
$72K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi