World
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
13.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑8.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 13.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
13.5%
24h
+8%
7d
+8%
volume
$50K
Closing date
Nov 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi