World
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
6%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 6% probability of this happening.
Current probability
6%
24h
0%
7d
-0.5%
volume
$95K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi