World
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?
6.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓1.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 6.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
6.5%
24h
+1%
7d
-1%
volume
$155K
Closing date
Dec 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi