predly
World

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

3.5%

Market thinks YES

Predly estimate ยท Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.

โ†“0.3% this week
30 days agoToday

Why did this change?

Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.

Compare platforms

Polymarket

Updated just now

3.5%
volume
$72K
share of estimate
100%
View market