Five major weekly moves, led by a 75.9-point surge

The week’s largest changes

The five largest weekly moves in the supplied data included four sharp increases and one steep decline. The “Blue mega-tsunami” market rose the most, gaining 75.9 percentage points to reach 99.4%. Two model-release markets followed, while an Ethereum price market recorded its entire net weekly increase in the latest 24 hours.

Moving the other way, the probability of Predict.fun launching a token by November 15, 2026, fell 54.4 percentage points to 43.6%.

These changes are measured in percentage points, not percentage growth. The figures show how market probabilities shifted. They do not establish which announcements or developments caused those shifts. The possible drivers discussed below are general explanations, not reported events from the week.

“Blue mega-tsunami” rises to 99.4%

“Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?” gained 75.9 percentage points over seven days, the largest increase in the list. Its latest probability was 99.4%, although it slipped 0.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. Listed volume was $113,656, with Polymarket and PredictIt named as platforms.

The weekly increase implies a starting probability of 23.5%. That is a substantial change: the market moved from well below halfway to almost the top of the probability range. The small daily decline shows that the latest day did not extend the weekly rise.

The title alone does not define “Blue mega-tsunami.” It would be misleading to assign it a specific political, physical or other meaning without the resolution criteria. Its listed close is January 5, 2027.

For a market with an ambiguous label, clarification of the qualifying outcome or publication of evidence relevant to that outcome could materially change its probability. Here, the missing definition limits how much can be concluded beyond the size and direction of the move.

Astra release probability reaches 94%

The Polymarket question asking whether the next Astra Model, version 6.1 or higher, will be released by November 15, 2026, rose 66 percentage points over the week to 94%. It gained 14.5 percentage points in the latest 24 hours. Listed volume was $131,770.

Unlike the “Blue mega-tsunami” market, this contract was still moving sharply higher during the latest day. The numbers show a strong shift toward a release meeting the stated deadline, though the probability remains below certainty.

Release markets can respond to official launch schedules, product announcements and evidence that a qualifying version is available. Delays or uncertainty about what counts as a release can move them in the opposite direction. For this question, both the version requirement and the deadline matter: evidence of a new model would need to satisfy the contract’s definition, not merely indicate development progress.

Gemini Carbon climbs to 80.5%

The probability that Gemini Carbon will be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026, increased 61 percentage points to 80.5%. The latest 24-hour gain was eight percentage points. Listed volume on Polymarket was $94,857.

The weekly move implies a starting probability of 19.5%. The market therefore shifted from a relatively low probability to a clear expectation that the release would fall inside the specified window.

That window is the important distinction. This question is not simply about whether a product eventually appears. An earlier or later release could fall outside the stated dates.

Announcements narrowing the expected release date, changes to availability plans or confirmation of public access could move a market like this. A general indication that a launch is approaching may be less decisive than evidence placing it within the exact period.

Ethereum’s increase is concentrated in the latest day

The probability that Ethereum will be above $2,400 on November 5 reached 71.5%, up 58.5 percentage points both over seven days and over 24 hours. Listed Polymarket volume was $171,128.

Those matching changes mean the latest day accounts for the entire net weekly increase. They do not show whether the probability fluctuated earlier in the week.

Markets tied to an asset-price threshold typically respond to the asset’s distance from that threshold, the time remaining and the scale of price fluctuations. Broader financial conditions or asset-specific developments can also affect expectations. The supplied data contains no Ethereum price history, so it cannot identify which factor drove this move.

Predict.fun’s launch probability drops below halfway

The probability that Predict.fun will launch a token by November 15, 2026, fell 54.4 percentage points to 43.6%. It declined another six percentage points over the latest 24 hours. Listed Polymarket volume was $172,803.

The weekly change implies a starting probability of 98%. This was a reversal from near certainty to below halfway, with the latest daily move continuing in the same direction.

Token-launch markets can react to confirmed schedules, postponements, readiness updates or clarification of what qualifies as a launch. As a deadline approaches, the absence of expected confirmation can also matter. None of those explanations is established here. The supported conclusion is narrower: confidence in a qualifying launch by the deadline fell sharply.